Trump Conviction Barely Dents His Odds of Winning Election: Prediction Markets

Week-over-week, the probability of Trump winning is down around three percentage points, to 54%. But on May 31, the day a jury convicted Trump of felony crimes, it lost only one percentage point.

On PredictIt, a more mainstream betting site where trades are placed in dollars rather than stablecoins, the Trump contract actually gained 1 cent following the guilty verdict, although at 51-48 his lead over Biden is narrower and closer to the polls than on Polymarket. Unlike Polymarket, which blocks U.S. users under a regulatory settlement but has traders around the world, PredictIt is open only to Americans.

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