During the early Asian trading hours on Friday, an individual or institute caused a brief mispricing on Polymarket. Reportedly, “GCorttell93” account bought over 4.5M Trump contracts for the “Presidential Election Winner 2024”. With $275,000, this pushed the odds to 99% for a period of the purchase due to the algorithm of the order book. This situation occurred despite the actual market odds being ~63% at that time. This highlights how large trades can temporarily tamper the betting odds on prediction platforms. Moreover, the rest of their bets were placed at other prices, such as $129,000 at 65.9 and $102,000 at 62.7.
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